HPU Develops Advanced Flood Prediction Model to Boost Himalayan Disaster Preparedness
In a significant step toward strengthening disaster resilience in the Himalayas, Himachal Pradesh University (HPU) has developed a cutting-edge satellite-based flood modelling system capable of predicting the impact of cloudburst-triggered flash floods with more than 95 per cent accuracy.
The research, led by Dr Mahesh Sharma, Deputy Director of the Himalayan Centre for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience (HIM-DR³), was carried out in collaboration with experts from the University of Delhi and Imperial College London, UK. The study offers a practical and scientifically validated solution to one of the biggest challenges facing Himalayan states today: the increasing frequency of devastating cloudbursts and flash floods.
To test the model, researchers reconstructed the flash flood that struck Thunag village in Mandi district during the 2025 monsoon season. The results were highly encouraging, with the system achieving an accuracy rate of 95.34 per cent when compared with official damage records.
The model combines NASA satellite rainfall data, high-resolution terrain mapping, field surveys, government damage assessments and advanced hydrodynamic simulations. This allows researchers to accurately track flood pathways, water depth, flow speed and the potential impact on homes, roads and other infrastructure.
Beyond post-disaster analysis, the technology has the potential to become a powerful early-warning tool. By integrating real-time rainfall data and weather forecasts, it can help identify flood-prone areas, vulnerable communities and critical infrastructure before disaster strikes. Such information can play a crucial role in evacuation planning, emergency response and long-term infrastructure protection.
The findings are particularly relevant for Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and other Himalayan regions where extreme weather events have become increasingly common in recent years.
The research has been published in the internationally acclaimed journal Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, highlighting the global relevance of the work being carried out at HPU.
HPU Vice-Chancellor Prof Mahavir Singh praised the achievement, saying it reflects the university’s growing research capabilities and commitment to developing practical solutions for disaster risk reduction. He noted that cloudbursts have emerged as a major challenge for mountain states and that scientific research can play a crucial role in improving preparedness and protecting lives.
Dr Mahesh Sharma, who completed his postdoctoral research at the University of California, Davis, has been actively involved in disaster risk reduction initiatives and has served as an expert on several national-level post-disaster assessment committees.
As climate-related disasters continue to pose threats across the Himalayan belt, innovations like HPU’s flood prediction model could become vital tools in helping governments and communities anticipate risks, respond faster and build greater resilience for the future.
