As La Niña Looms Himachal Braces for a Slow Start to Winter, Bigger Snow Spells Possible Later
Meteorologists are keeping a close eye on the Pacific this season, where signs of a developing La Niña are becoming clearer. While the phenomenon is expected to remain weak through the winter months, its impact could still shape how snowfall unfolds across Himachal Pradesh.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the current La Niña is “weak but prevailing,” likely to continue into early 2026 before easing back to neutral. For Himachal, the real story lies in how La Niña influences western disturbances—the weather systems that bring snow to the Himalayas.
History shows that La Niña winters often leave a mark. In 2010–11, heavy spells buried Lahaul-Spiti and Kinnaur, forcing early closures of Rohtang Pass. The 2017–18 season brought early snow to Kalpa, Keylong, and upper Chamba, while Shimla and Narkanda enjoyed prolonged snow cover. Even in 2021–22, though precipitation was uneven, sharp January disturbances dumped heavy snow on Manali’s slopes and Jalori Pass.
This year, however, forecasts suggest a slow start. IMD’s extended outlook points to mostly dry and stable weather in early December, with little sign of strong disturbances. Some global models hint at a possible system around mid-December, but confidence remains low.
Experts caution that La Niña’s effects vary by altitude. High valleys like Lahaul-Spiti and Kinnaur often see heavier snow once disturbances arrive, while mid-hill towns such as Shimla and Kufri experience mixed outcomes. Lower regions like Solan, Mandi, and Una usually feel La Niña through colder nights and dry spells rather than snowfall.
As December unfolds, the timing of the first major western disturbance will be crucial. If it arrives mid-month, January could turn into a season of robust snow events, echoing past La Niña winters. For now, Himachal enters winter under the shadow of a building La Niña—quiet at the start, but with the potential for dramatic snow later in the season.
