IMD Predicts Early Rainfall for Himachal in 2024 Monsoon
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an early onset of the Southwest Monsoon this year, with significant rainfall anticipated due to favorable oceanic conditions aiding its advance into Himachal Pradesh.
For the period from June to September 2024, India is expected to receive slightly above-average rainfall, approximately 106% of the usual 87 cm. Himachal Pradesh is predicted to experience normal rainfall, ranging between 92-108% of its long-term average of 734.4 mm.
In June, Himachal Pradesh is expected to receive 101.1 mm of rain, which is typical for this time of year.
Initially, weak El Niño conditions will influence the weather, shifting to neutral conditions later. By the season’s end, La Niña conditions may develop, affecting rainfall patterns.
El Niño, characterized by warmer ocean temperatures, often reduces rainfall in India, whereas La Niña typically increases it. ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, encompasses these climate patterns.
Several climate factors impact the monsoon, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ENSO conditions. Currently, neutral IOD conditions are expected to turn positive, boosting rainfall later in the season.
The transition from El Niño to La Niña could also result in increased rainfall towards the season’s end.
Temperatures in June are expected to be above normal in most parts of India, including Himachal Pradesh. Night temperatures will also be higher, except in northern areas where they may remain normal or below normal.
During the typical Southwest Monsoon season, which usually starts in Himachal Pradesh around June 24-25, cumulative rainfall varies significantly across the state. Kangra district records the highest average rainfall at 1622.4 mm, while Kinnaur registers the lowest at 247.8 mm. Shimla and Mandi receive 627.5 mm and 1097.5 mm, respectively.
Himachal Pradesh is likely to experience normal to above-normal rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season, benefiting agriculture and water resources.
Last year, the state also experienced vigorous monsoon rainfall, with severe events in July and August causing 555 fatalities and significant damage, including the destruction of around 1400 houses and cowsheds due to landslides.
