Monsoon likely to be below normal to normal in Himachal: IMD

South Western Monsoon is likely to be normal to below normal in  Himachal Pradesh including other Northwestern Himalayan states, India Meteorological Department forecast here today.

Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal to below average in parts of Northwest India including Himachal Pradesh during 2023 (June -September), IMD said making Long-range Forecast for the 2023 SW Monsoon Season.

“Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country likely to be normal as a whole is most likely to be 96 percent of LPA with a model error of plus or minus five percent.” The spokesperson of Shimla Meteorological informed.

Releasing previous Monsoon data of monsoon season’s rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 IMD said that during the period southwest Monsoon for Himachal Pradesh records normal or annual cumulative rainfall tune to 734.4 mm.

Depending upon Forecast and Climatological probability forecast could dive into five categories for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall. Forests are considered deficient for less than 90 pc rainfall, Below normal (90-95 pc), Normal (96 to 104. pc), Above average ( above 105 to 110 PC), and Excess (above 110).

During Monsoon season Kangra district receives the highest cumulative precipitation of 1622 mm, Sirmaur 1184 mm, Mandi 1098,  Hamirpur 973 mm, Una 953 mm, Solan 874 mm, Chamba 853 mm, Bilaspur 819 mm Shimla 628 mm, Kullu 548 mm Lahaul & Spiti 383 mm and  Kinnaur 248.

IMD said that the Climatological probability is likely to be 17 to 33 pc and the Forecast probability is between 29 to 35 pc for the Monsoon season. It also stated that northern hemisphere snow cover areas during February and March 2023 were observed to be below normal and Winter & spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere, as well as Eurasia, has a tendency of general inverse relationship with the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall.

IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon seasonal rainfall in the last week of May.

IMD said that La Niña conditions changed to Neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific region and other climate model forecast indicates that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.

At present, neutral IOD(Indian Ocean Dipole) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean. The latest climate model forecast indicates that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.