Early Monsoon Arrival Expected to Bring Relief to Northwest India

There is good news for residents and farmers in northwest India, as the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is expected to arrive earlier than usual this year. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon is likely to reach the region by June 20, about four to six days ahead of its normal onset window of June 24–26.

If predictions hold true, this year’s arrival will match last year’s early trend but come earlier than in 2024, when the monsoon arrived on June 27, and 2022, when it arrived on June 29. However, such early arrivals are not very common—over the past two-and-a-half decades, the monsoon has reached the region before June 20 only five times.

The IMD’s latest forecast map indicates that the monsoon will first touch the eastern parts of Himachal Pradesh and northeastern Uttarakhand around June 20. From there, it is expected to gradually spread, covering most of these states by June 25, and then advancing into Punjab and Haryana by the end of June. The entire northwest region is likely to receive monsoon coverage by early July.

Meanwhile, progress has already begun in the southern parts of the country. The monsoon has reached parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and is expected to arrive in Kerala by May 26, ahead of its usual June 1 schedule.

However, while the early arrival may bring timely rains, the overall outlook for the 2026 monsoon season is slightly cautious. The IMD has predicted that rainfall this year could be below normal, estimated at about 92% of the long-period average (LPA). This shortfall is partly attributed to the possible influence of El Niño, which tends to weaken monsoon activity.

On a hopeful note, meteorologists suggest that conditions over the Indian Ocean may improve later in the season, potentially helping the monsoon regain strength and offset early deficits.

The monsoon plays a vital role in India’s economy, providing over 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. It is especially important for agriculture, as nearly two-thirds of India’s population depends on farming, much of which relies on rainfall rather than irrigation.

Encouragingly, current water storage levels across the country’s reservoirs are in a strong position. According to official data, water reserves are 24% above normal, offering some cushion even if rainfall falls slightly short. In Himachal Pradesh and nearby regions, reservoirs such as Bhakra, Pong and Kol dams are reporting higher-than-average storage levels, which is a positive sign for both irrigation and power generation.

Overall, while an early monsoon arrival brings hope for the farming community, the coming months will be crucial in determining how evenly and consistently the rains are distributed across the region.